@esyudkowsky

There's a lot of reasons I hate the "P(doom)" concept, but one of them is that it conflates P(ruin|ASI) and P(ASI). P(ruin|ASI) where the ASI is built by anything remotely resembling current techniques, or by new techniques invented and managed by any LLM resembling Astra/Fable, as meddled-with by current personnel at current AI companies, is "Yes" on my current estimate. P(ASI) marginalizes over P(ASI|policy_i) and P(Policy). And while I've heard other people pontificating that they definitely know what the Policy will be, I do not find their arguments convincing. I wouldn't claim to have a very solid forecast myself. So I do not have an equally solid opinion about P(ASI) as I do about P(r…